Drought and low precipitation dominated the agrometeorological profile of the Central‑Oeste wheat crop in late August and early September 2026. INMET data show that Goiás received only 69.2 mm of rainfall from 12 May to 7 Sep, a mere 12 % of the 575.8 mm water demand, while Mato Grosso do Sul accumulated 236 mm over 42 days, below the 393 mm requirement. The absence of rain in July and the 0.2 mm in August intensified the water deficit, leaving soil moisture below 10 % of capacity. Consequently, irrigation became the primary mitigation strategy, yet the deficit persisted, causing significant yield losses.

In Goiás, irrigated fields maintained productive growth and exhibited no notable brusone incidence. The controlled water supply allowed for adequate physiological processes—leaf expansion, floral differentiation, and grain filling—resulting in satisfactory yields. Moreover, the cooler winter temperatures suppressed pest pressure, enhancing the overall agronomic performance. The proportion of irrigated acreage therefore elevated the state's average yield estimate above the national mean.

Conversely, sequeiro wheat in Goiás suffered a 39.9 % reduction in potential yield due to chronic water scarcity. The low rainfall, combined with high evapotranspiration, curtailed photosynthetic capacity and limited grain development. Soil moisture deficits led to reduced leaf area, decreasing solar interception and biomass accumulation. The economic viability of harvesting these plots dropped, prompting many farmers to adopt cover‑crop practices to conserve residual moisture.

Mato Grosso do Sul experienced a dual stressor: high disease pressure from brusone (Pyricularia oryzae) and persistent drought. The pathogen proliferation was amplified by elevated temperatures and humidity during critical growth stages, compounding the yield decline. The combination of biotic and abiotic stresses limited harvest volumes and lowered grain quality, posing a risk to regional supply chains.

In the Ponta Porã sub‑region, irregular rainfall distribution** caused severe water stress during key developmental phases. July’s 19.2 mm of precipitation fell short of the 148.7 mm evapotranspiration demand, leaving soil moisture below 10 % and triggering a 54.6 % loss of potential productivity. The fragmented rainfall pattern impeded uniform crop development, exacerbating the vulnerability to both drought and disease.